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Thread: [Resolved] [Resolved] [Resolved] What will the future of the web be? (Old thread)

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  1. #1
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    Inspired by someone's post in another thread of mine, I decided to give this question it's own individual thread. It was mentioned that everyone's a web designer nowadays; from college kids with too much time on their hands to the client himself who insists they can do it on their own.

    So, what will become of us professionals, and for those in college or thinking about changing jobs, is it a good idea to invest in a future as a web designer?

    With broadband becoming a standard in people's homes, it is assumed that web technology will only get more interactive. This is almost a given for sure but who will be using this technology to build web sites? Will it still be the designer or will these programs become so easy to use that anyone with half a brain will be able to make a fully functional and professional-looking site?

    Many web designers love their jobs because of the great technology they get to use. Half the time it seems more like fun than work. Unfortunately, it is this "fun factor" that brings in too much competition. Nineteen-year-old kids without a college degree are taking to Flash because it's fun to use and in addition, are taking away business from adult professionals who have to support themselves, have to support families. Is this right?

    Is this trend of the amateur web designer going to continue or will technology develop so rapidly that only the professinoals will be able to keep up? You know what I mean by professionals, don't you? The ones trying to EARN A LIVING.

    A year ago, web designing looked like a great business to get into but there are so many dark clouds on the horizon now that I'm not so sure this is true anymore.

    What do the rest of you think?



    [Edited by Gotha on 04-12-2001 at 04:44 PM]

  2. #2
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    In a word - no. At least, not in the manner it does today. Web content is more and more becoming interactive and the use of ASP, XML, and Flash are only the beginning of what web apps and design utilities will become.

    There is money now to live on as a web developer, but as for the future, I think it, like the industry, will change as well. It will become easier for non-techies to create proper web pages and the gurus will always be marketable.

    Just look at how web content has progressed since the early 1990's. It's only gonna get bigger faster and someone's gotta be around to do the work. Will they pay? They will, it's just a matter of how much and for what.

  3. #3
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    Society always gravitates to the new media. Database driven flash. Banners become movies..etc..there was just a big special on NBC tonight about new media such as TalkWay, etc..

    Try downloading any demo or game from http://www.gamespot.com to see what I mean.

    People always speculate about HTML coders going by the wayside..probably not. There will less corporate design which is simple as everything moves to the more complex.

    We're successful because of our methods and our tools. Simple coders will fall behind as clinets expectation continue to rise.


  4. #4
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    I reckon it will be dvd quality vid and cd quality sound.
    same meat different gravy as we say here.

    (i hope).

  5. #5
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    It is great Gotha to see people posting questions in the Boardroom that are of the subject that the Boardroom was intended for. Anyway, about the future of web design, bare with the mathematical side of my brain for a minute.

    w = f(x,y,z)
    Where z = f(x,y) such that z approaches 0 as y approaches positive infinity.

    Where
    w = profitability
    x = skill
    y = public appreciation (or understanding) of good design (most don't right know)
    and
    z = business skills

    In other words, what I am trying to say is that in the perfect world, only skill would matter if people appreciated and were smart enough to know good design. But since they are not (and never will be), the profitability of an operation is a function of skill, how much a client understands and appreciates your skill, plus your operations ability to manage the business end of things.

    Thus, the best thing that web designers can do is try to educate the public (and clients) about what is good design. Right now there is a lot of competition because people are out there that are not any good, but because clients have often have poor taste, they still get hired.

    Anyway, I must run, will be back, have more to say

  6. #6
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    What is "good" keeps changing..

    Now it's Flash good..banners bad...

    We make the same $$ of a simple site as we do with a complex flash site that has 100+hoops, steps, whatever to jump through... in the long run. The business end continues to grow so long as you provide what the market wants.

    I've seen a bunch of great flash sites which absolutely miss the boat for what a business wants.

    If you want to do an ambigious tech-oriented flash site for your resume so be it. If the client wants that..so be it..

    But don't try to convince someone that they need bleeding edge design..to sell their products..

    We all want to bring the public up to our level of understanding..why not just keep fullfilling their current fickle wants?

    That's what the service industry is there for..








  7. #7
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    specialization is the key

    No longer will the web be ruled by the single-person webmaster. You will have to know your niche and know it well. Will that be flash or coldfusion or specifically PHP programming? You will have to know how your specialty integrates with other parts of web design and you will have to know how to work well with others.

    yes, it will still be profitable, but it will be a whole different ballgame.

  8. #8
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    I think that the web will become what TV is to us today. and yeah TV is still big business and great money. Why would anyone think web design would be any different? You have a much larger customer base, your not really limited by geography. Everyone wants their own little "TV" spot on the net and if you know how to produce them well, you won't be able to help but make money. Heck i don't even want more clients half of the time and it seems i've always got two or three wanting to talk to me about doing them a website.

  9. #9
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    In 5-10 years, I will just be gettingout of college in 5. I think that the web will definently go more mobile. Already in place on phones, like my Sprint PCS (I love it). But then also it will go to TV a lot more. Who knows, maybe we will see a TV that controls everything in the house!

    I also think that there will be more standardized internet communication into vehicles. the Northstar system by GM is a good example of this starting-out technology. I would like to see computers that when your car starts acting up, it will access the internet or network, find out what is wrong, and automatically tell you what needs to be done and where or how you can do it. And even use it as a phone and Instant messaging device. I kow this is a ways off, but it is a good idea.

  10. #10
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    I know..

    The Internet doesn't even need graphics at times, just a good database..


    Check out 1-800-555-tell some time.

    It is a free Internet Phone line which allows you to voice browse their web portal. No charge what so ever, you can even jump through the commercials by just saying "menu" "help" etc..

    You can even play Blackjack against a Sean Connery archtype..


  11. #11
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    wasnt the same question not asked when people started doing html you still can distinguish the pros from the 12 year old guys so dont worry guys competition is ok

  12. #12
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    Talent

    I think the real key is that the market will settle, but not dissappear.

    Talent is always recognized at some level, and lately the bar has been dramatically lowered. People have been rushing so fervently to get something - anything - online during this dot-com mania that started spreading about 4 years ago, and it's meant that anyone with a computer and the brains to use a word processor could be an internet design professional.

    Lately though, people have started seeing the flufff as just that - useless filler material. The web is useful as a tool, and there's no substitute for creative designers. I feel confident in my ability to keep a position as a web designer because I know what I do is good, and although many thousands of people can do what I do, they can't do it as well.

    Web design is easy - anyone can buy the tools - it's being able to think outside of the tool-of-the-month and keep up the creative process that makes you valuable. Creativity is not something you can find on the self-help isle in CompUSA, and to tell you the truth I'm glad that the industry is slowing down because it means that the creative ones among us will shine more brightly rather than being written off as someone who learned FrontPage by mail.

    I'm still keeping my fingers crossed though

    Aaron

  13. #13
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    Amen brother..

    You can make the same $$ of a creative site; an organized site, or a simple site none the less.




  14. #14
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    Originally posted by zacvin


    $ = f(x,y,z)
    Where $ = f(x,y) such that z approaches 0 as y approaches positive infinity.

    Where
    $ = profitability
    x = technical skill
    y = Client appreciation
    and
    z = business skills and marketing
    This is quite a good equation (excuse the edits), and to increase $.

    X - Stay current, always learn new stuff.
    Y - Don't compete in markets where y is low, find educated clients that appreciate your skills. Easier than you think.
    Z - Your whole marketing approach should be based around capturing clients with high Y. Look at other successful firms in your class and look at what they are doing or how they pitch to get work.

    In summary, your business skills and marketing will drive your client appreciation if you have the technical skill to pull it off. A little luck also helps

    [Edited by Scills on 04-15-2001 at 10:44 AM]

  15. #15
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    It's just a matter of time before what is done today by the professionals, will be the subject of a sixth grader's "show and tell" topic. The saving grace, if you will, is that in an area such as this, there will always be something new for the pros to learn, tinker with, and ultimately over use to the point it is no longer the "new thing" and something else must be developed to satisfy the overwhelming demand for change. So the only way to remain profitable is to remain on top of such a change.

    This is the circle that has become part of every business. One can live with it, or get out of it's way.

    Lou C. Fur

  16. #16
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    Originally posted by Lou C. Fur
    It's just a matter of time before what is done today by the professionals, will be the subject of a sixth grader's "show and tell" topic. The saving grace, if you will, is that in an area such as this, there will always be something new for the pros to learn, tinker with, and ultimately over use to the point it is no longer the "new thing" and something else must be developed to satisfy the overwhelming demand for change. So the only way to remain profitable is to remain on top of such a change.

    This is the circle that has become part of every business. One can live with it, or get out of it's way.

    Lou C. Fur
    Yep. Go read "Who Moved My Cheese" by Spencer Johnson and see why you must change with the times. The book is only 94 pages long with type larger than "The Cat In The Hat," but the moral of the story is priceless.

  17. #17
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    I think that somebody missed out an additional factor also of importance - artistic ability. I mean by this knowledge and experience of design issues, colour theory etc. The key word in web design is design, something that many people know very little about.

    Many people move to web design after studying some obscure subject like astrophysics and realising that they cannot get a job. They then move to web design because it pays well and work can be found easily. People like this i find have little creative ability. A true designer is an egotistical entity that can create beautiful and powerful imagery. Real designers are very powerful people; they have the ability to provoke, inspire and capture the imagination of the masses through images.

    Anybody with a little knowledge of computers can create web pages, but without a little creative ability, they tend to look either naiive or boring and purely functional. A good web designer is in touch with both the logical and the creative parts of their brain.

    I recommend that anyone wishing to be a web designer should spend a little time looking at examples of good design either for print or web based and also study a little semiotics, the study of the communication of ideas through symbols and imagery. If you don't have any artistic ability then you're probably better off sticking to the technial side and employing a designer to create lovely imagery or user interfaces.

    Just my opinion, for what it's worth. Having graduated from design school as an illustrator, i consider myself more talented than most, but also i have knowledge of programming and mathematics that is needed to be a web designer.

  18. #18
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    As for $, I do it because i enjoy it. So **** all you greedy bastards out there!

  19. #19
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    Artistic Ability

    Oh yeah, no doubt. Web design requires quite a bit of artistic ability. With out it, god, what would become of the world! The thing is you need both the artist's eye and the teck edge or you will just sink.

    As far as your comment regarding the money involved, I think I can say most of us do it for the love of the work, but we still have to make a living.

    Lou C. Fur

  20. #20
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    Also, lets not start with what you need more of. That fight will last forever. So, lets just say that you need both. Not more of one or the other....lmao.

    Lou C. Fur

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