how long will flash last?

[spideyjunior]

this is a very interesting topic..

how long do you think flash will last untill it is replaced by something else..

i personally do not see any future for flash right now..
people are no longer in flash animation but are going towards 3D with maya, max, etc..

and since these programs are also exporting to shockwave, i do not know how long flash revolution will last..

i think this debate MIGHT have been done before, but, it would be good to see other people contribute to this topic as well.

[alty29]

until macromedia makes something better...or adobe steps up

[Ian424]

Originally posted by spideyjunior
this is a very interesting topic..

how long do you think flash will last untill it is replaced by something else..

i personally do not see any future for flash right now..
people are no longer in flash animation but are going towards 3D with maya, max, etc..

and since these programs are also exporting to shockwave, i do not know how long flash revolution will last..

i think this debate MIGHT have been done before, but, it would be good to see other people contribute to this topic as well.

3d ? for the web? not quite yet. how much smoothly integrated 3d animation have you seen lately? i know i havent seen any.

i think flash will last for quite a while, it will elvolve to the web's needs. Think about it, when flash 4 came out, shiny flashing animation and simple scripting were all that were needed, and flash was mostly for animation. then 5 came along, increased interactivity, and more flash games showed up. now with MX, many people get what they've been looking for a long time : more usability, common interface items, etc, so now more "rich applications" will start showing up, most likely. (or at least more usable flash content)

as for the shockwave thing, same deal with the integration - if a shockwave object is loading, you'll notice. Plus, if you mean for realtime rendered 3d, many computers are too slow to run these quickly, not to mention the fact that director generally has giant file sizes.

[TrIzKuT]

vector will somehow become great........because of compression and stuff... *laughs*

[kamyab]

forever

[Jamez Brown]

My bet is Adobe will come out with something simular to flash, with more features and more flexibility... It will happen eventually

[big_k]

Originally posted by Jamez Brown
My bet is Adobe will come out with something simular to flash, with more features and more flexibility... It will happen eventually

and noone will have the plugin so it will die after a year or two...

[rooney]

Originally posted by big_k
and noone will have the plugin so it will die after a year or two...

You're right. It's all about penetration.

[hurricaneone]

Originally posted by rooney
You're right. It's all about penetration.

Yes - how astute of you to see.



I think that Macromedia have a golden opportunity here. There's no other product that delivers so much for so little bandwidth, plus the tie-ins with browsers, Jacob Neilsen even being lured into the pro-Flash camp... Even if Adobe does go ahead and and introduce a similar product, it'll be cult in comparison to the audience that can view Flash product.

It's all well and good planning for a 3D web experience, but if you want to have any wide-ranging user interest (by that I mean people waiting less than 2 hours on theor 56k modems to see the site intro), it'll be a while before you see immersive 3D delivered over the web - comparable in quality to Monsters Inc, or Iceage or something like that.

Remember - unless it's just a demo of personal joy and skill, you still have to design to the lowest common denominator possible.

[BlinkOk]

the longer macromedia continue to impose artificial limits on the product. the shorter it's life will be.

[hurricaneone]

Originally posted by BlinkOk
the longer macromedia continue to impose artificial limits on the product. the shorter it's life will be.

Could you give me some examples, BlinkOk?

[Hippyscum]

I think as long as people have 56k connections, designers HAVE to use flash (imagine a total 3d site with only video, they WILL come, but they will never be reachable for all internet users)

[Ed Mack]

Well, it is painfully slow for one.

Anyway, what about SVG? It's an open XML format and adobe have web players for it already. Many other people have written their own due to it's simple xml format... It could perhaps become popular if the browsers start including its plugin.

[justice strike]

the answer is quite simple. as long as we designers and coders use flash the people will view flash. We control the format because we createit. as long as there is noone using a other format people won't have any reason to get a plugin for a other product

[Ian424]

btw - for those who say that adobe might come out w/ a better product, they've tried. its called Livemotion (its in version 2 last time i checked), and besides having an interface closer to other adobe products, it doesnt have much going for it.

[CNO]

Are people just starting to move to 3d?

3d is a design methodology - a style, not a technology. People thought 3d games would kill 2d ones, but obviously both co-exist quite well nowadays (pixel artists are having a bit of a renaissance with the GBA).

Anyhow, I saw a great example of a VRML-type 3d world built entirely in Flash the other day using the drawing API - as others have said, as long as the Flash technology keeps improving and moving forward, it will be a long time before Flash dies, if it ever does. I'm convinced that Flash won't ever really "die", but it will eventually evolve into a different technology.

But, in the short term, the newest Flash player is achieving penetration increases of 30% every 3 months, with the Flash 5 player having gone far beyond critical mass. Flash is either approaching or near the peak of it's life, not a downward spiral.

[spideyjunior]

well..

flash has pretty much done the same things.

i have been with flash since its version 5..

today, i am on mx and i have not seen any big differences at what you can do..
sure, u can do some stuff with flash 5...but it would be harder then to do it in flash mx..

but hey, u can still do it..
and if you ask me, i think the sites are getting boring now...

i mean, there was a time when flash used to be beyond cool....and i would only visit websites which were flash...

and i had my entire class talking about flash like only websites with flash were cool..

but now, i see many 3d movies around and i say to myself, wov! i wish i could do that

and with programs like discreet's plasma....3d is coming to the web...

maybe the flash browser plugin may last..
but, i am not sure how many people will want to make anything in macromedia flash mx, 5, etc since a lot of 3d is happening..

but, all these flash website, copies of 2a, whoswe, rayoflight, etc..
are becoming boring..

for example, i was browsing through the cool sites forums just now..and many thread started off with soemthin like: "coolest site ever!" and stuff [i have seen countless such threads]....but i do not know what people see in it anymore..

flash is falling..
even its community if falling...
it is being broken up into many different separate forums opened by other individuals...some of my friends on fk have their own forums on their own domains....and they all have a flash forum.....
i do not know why..
its kinda like a one strong country being broken up into smaller countries..

i think it is getting hopeless...

[Ian424]

at first mx doesnt seem like it offers much, but honestly i dont think you've looked very far into it if you continue to think that. sure the jump from 4 to 5 was much larger than from 5 to mx, but thats because actionscript is still largely similar to flash 5's, except it is now extended with new features available in MX.

as for flash failing, maybe the shock value of being able to animate things has gone away, and theres less demand for that animation. but as for 3d etc coming to the web - i havent seen a site that uses 3d in the interface that loads quickly enough to be usable, or that isnt just a gimmicky effect (spinning logo, those overused boxes that zoom by and rotate).

the browser plugin is pretty much the only thing i've seen flash do, besides maybe presentations, which i think are still powerpoint-dominated. where else is flash really used? its a web technology, for the most part.

as for the 'spinoff' communities, most of them have about 20 members, maybe 6 or 7 that post. FK still has a large number of active members, as you can see from the amount active at one time at the bottom of the forums.

[gerbick]

spidey, I agree on the fragmentation of the community.

however, I think it's moreso akin to the fact that the people that are making money from it, rarely share the knowledge as if they are guarding a trade secret.

true... FK sorta breaks that mold, but you are talking about only a few people out of a huge industry that actually take their time to answer questions here instead of just pimping their newest book or acheivements.

I remember when I first got started in 3D. I had conversations with plenty of people in the industry. Now? I do well to get an e-mail or answer back from the same types of people in the Flash industry.

That's ok... it just sparked me to stick around, figure out more, share what I found, and promise not to be like the majority of the pro's out there.

But even that "professional" scoffery is changing...

Sure.. web blogs are aplenty now. Communication is on the rise. But that's in response to the fact that now Macromedia seems like they don't understand the very same people that could have potentially led the communities...

However, I digress. Flash... well it has an ominous name. Flash... as in flash in the pan. As much as we use it, I don't think there is one of us that is 100% happy with the program.

However, there are no programs that anybody is 100% happy with. I personally hate it's fractured workflow. It's nothing like Photoshop... it's nothing like AfterEffects or Director. It's nothing like any other program I have... and it, sometimes, annoys me with the weird little quirks it has.

However, just as Flash found a niche market, that grew, and then gave the people a chance to become "professionals". And as the ever-changing world of computers and the internet have shown in the past, there will be something bigger, better, faster. Adoption rate is now more related to communication than anything else.

Flash will last as long as communication remains open.

[spideyjunior]

yes..
i have noticed communities with only 2-6 people..
but i also see communities where everything is huge..
like were-here (no, i havent posted more then 2 times there and i think that place sucks)...

i do agree that flash is interactive..


and i also agree with flash not being 100% satisfactory..

i wish there could just be a program where u can learn pretty much a lot and become a advanced use by just playing around.
i have unfortunately, not found that in flash..
u have to read some tut's, etc. to get the program working so u can use it..
some people might have learned the app using nothing, but i am sure they get stuck more and take a lot more time figuring things out...

flash is an art tool...a way to express and interact on the web....it should be free to use.....well, i do not mean not charging money for the software....but a app that can just be used by just sitting there and playing around..

like photoshop...u can apply filters, adjust the colour levels, and many people will agree u can atleast see something cool...

but, for a new user, if u start up flash, and make somethin, i think u can pretty much only see 2D static images...just sitting there..

a few geomatric shapes or such...

flash should be somethin like a artist's pad...u can pretty much kinda mould something outta it...

flash, after comparing to many other programs (not in its purpose), but in its user interface, and just plain using it, i have found it to be dis-satisfactory..

unless macromedia comes up with something revolutionary, which will come up with something to disgrace flash, i do not know how flash will go on..

and i am sure that future compression and codecs will make fast flexible 3D on the web possible...



but, as per now, interactivity and creativity in flash is unmatched.....atleast in terms of the web