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Thread: Elements. Fantasy cards game

  1. #321
    Well I will reveal the mystery about the spinning wheel:

    The program takes the opponent deck and randomly finds 5 non pillar cards, the 5 non pillars cards are used for the spinning, so the possible combinations are

    5^3=125

    the winning combinations are

    5

    If all the 5 cards are different, the chance to win with a single spin is:

    5/125 = 4%
    (that's why I said 5%, it is actually 4, but there is a small chances that 2 or more of the same card will be used)

    However, if a deck is specialized, the chances to have more cards of the same kind in the cards pool are higher, if 2 of the five cards are the same the chance to win is:

    ((2^3)+2) / 125 = 11/125 = 8.8%

    etc... so, putting it in a table:

    5 different cards = 4% winning chance
    4 different cards = 8.8% winning chance
    3 different cards = 23.2% winning chance
    2 different cards = 52% winning chance
    all cards are the same = 100%

    That means that from a deck with only one kind of non-pillar card you'll win for sure, BUT....

    In the new version I added something else: the program has only 50 chances to find all the 5 non-pillar cards, if it is not successfull at doing that it will start drawing pillars as well. This way, playing against a pillar only deck will give you 3 pillars. Statistic for almost all pillar decks gets quite complicated.

  2. #322
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheWolfman View Post
    Here is my attempt to break Nova.
    How is that breaking nova exactly?

  3. #323
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    Hm, is there something going on with score submitting? I see two xxshinobixx, ziter, TimeCop, and new deck in the high score. Each of the two have high scores near each other, which seems makes it seem like there was just some error in submitting and they were entered twice.

    Minor bug: I played the tutorial and never summoned a creature with a special ability. The next game I played was PvP, and summoned a creature with a special ability and got the message about the flashing border. Not sure if this was intended or not.
    Last edited by icecue7; 06-10-2009 at 11:24 AM.

  4. #324
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheWolfman View Post
    Here is my attempt to break Nova.

    Mark of Entropy
    6 Nova
    6 Lycanthrope (Entropy, Darkness)
    2 Momentum (Gravity)
    2 Foresti Spirit (Life, Water)
    2 Deflagration (Fire)
    2 Chrysora (Water, Death)
    2 Blessing (Light)
    2 Firefly (Air)
    2 Reverse Time (Time)
    2 Devourer (Darkness, Earth)
    2 Lightning (Aether)
    Umm thats not really breaking nova, thats just using nova against nova, although really the best way to beat a nova deck is just another nova deck.

  5. #325
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    @kethaq:

    Your #11 deck seems interestingly similar to mine. As you can see I was able to defeat you. Although it would've been a lot closer if you had one or two more Novas.



    Here's my deck. I have some offense:

    Nova x6
    Lycanthrope x4
    Firefly Queen x3
    Rustler x2
    Poison
    Graboid

    Defense:

    Thunderstorm x2
    Otyugh
    Parasite
    Lightning
    Heal
    Purify

    And denial/control.

    Devourer x2
    Freeze x2
    Deflagration
    Reverse Time



    My strategy:

    I beat most Nova decks because I have more control. Devourer, Reverse Time or Otyugh can all really trip up a Nova deck.

    Dimensional Shield decks are harder, but I can generally Freeze or Reverse the dragons.

    A straight Rustler-Firefly deck beat me - they were able to get their combo into action faster. OTOH I didn't draw a Nova until turn 3...

  6. #326
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    Quote Originally Posted by zanzarino View Post
    Well I will reveal the mystery about the spinning wheel:


    OK thanks, It all makes sense to me now. That explains (what I thought was) the uncanny frequency of triple wins.

    Sorry to be nitpicky but I am a math guy. You stats are correct for 2 different cards if there are 4 of one type and 1 of the other but they would be slightly lower if it was 3,2. Similarly for 3 types of cards.

    So, if there 20 non pillar cards and 1 rare in my hand of ny opponent the chance of getting that rare once in the spinning set once would be

    5*(1/20)*(19/20)^4/20^5 = 20.36%

    and twice

    10*(2/20)^2*(18/20)^3 = 2.14%

    plus much smaller chances of getting it 3,4,5 times in the spinning set

    and the chance of actually winning that card on a spin wold be would be aproximately 20.3% * 1/125 + 2.14% * 8/125 +... = 0.33 %

    So for 3 spins you can basically triple that because it is such a small number giving you almost a 1% cahance of winning that rare.

    However the odds significantly improve if there are more than one copy (I've certainly seen some decks with at least two farenheit swords.) The chance would be 0.93% for one spin with 2 copies of a rare in a deck of 20 eligible cards and 1.83% for 3 copies. Again basically triple that for three spins.

    So for the elements deck even it it only has one copy of each rare there would be close to a 10% chance of winning one.

    I actually got intruiged by the probability problem so I worked it out. Based on what Zanarino said. If for example there are 2 copies of a rare that you want and in a deck of 20 non pillar cards your chance to win that card at least once in three spins would be 2.55%. It drops to 1.83% for 2 with 25 non-pillars. and that doesn't even cound your chances of winning some other card. For a deck with 24 pillars and 6 dragons your chance of winning on the first spin is 99.1% and your chance of winning at least once in three spinns is 99.7%. Hehe. I just noticed I gave the same example above. I had worked it out as a specific case earlier. Now I have much more general results but it's nice to see that I got the same number both times.

    If anyone wants to know any specific probabilities let me know. I worked it out on a speadsheet so all I have to do is plug in a few numbers and I can figure out what your chances are.

    In conclusion your odds of winning a rare are much better than I thought.
    Last edited by kethaq; 06-10-2009 at 08:20 PM.

  7. #327
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    Quote Originally Posted by -Manwe- View Post
    @kethaq:

    Your #11 deck seems interestingly similar to mine. As you can see I was able to defeat you. Although it would've been a lot closer if you had one or two more Novas.
    yes, very similar. I have a slightly different balance. I try not to invest to heavily in any one element. but similar strategy it looks like. Unfortunately for any competetive deck it makes an large difference how it is played I think. So it's not really a fair test of a deck playing against the AI. It does dumb things like play novas for no reason, which can make the difference in a close match. I still win 80-90% of my PvP matches. but I am sure that would be reduced if we had live opponents.

    I've tried a bunch of other strats but I keep coming back to the nova deck as the straongest all-rounder. Plus it's quick to play and relatively cheap to build. I figure it I had to start from scratch I could build the same deck I have in 50-100 games.
    Last edited by kethaq; 06-10-2009 at 07:54 PM.

  8. #328
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rogue1 View Post
    I have been working on getting 6 of each card including rares this could take awhile.
    That's ambitious, I've only manages to get 3 rares and I have played over 800 games.

  9. #329
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    so far I have three rares in about 300 games (two owl eyes and a fahrenheit). And yea Nova is by far the best deck and most well rounded right now.

  10. #330
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    Yep, I seem to be winning about 90-10 with this deck.

    It's weird because some decks in the top 10 just fall to pieces vs any Nova deck... I think I could EASILY beat them with this deck in real PVP.

    The only decks that feel "tournament grade" to me are the Nova Rainbow deck and the Aether/Time combo... and maybe Fire, the AI is terrible at playing fire decks so it's hard to judge.

  11. #331
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    ehh I think a an All Aether deck is better than an Aether time just because Aether tends to play faster. Also fire decks are no where near as powerful as they were in the earlier version so I don't know if they're really any good. About your comment about the people in the top 10, its more about how much time you play rather than how good your deck is because if you play enough your score is going to go up. Like my deck. I dismantle a lot of people that are in the higher brackets, but I don't have enough time to play and work myself into the top 50. There are also probably people that play a ton against elder decks to make sure they win with their not as good decks. This is where a true PvP would come in handy because then we might be able to only base the top scores off of that instead of the total. We might also be able to make the rankings off of a weekly tournament or something as well.
    Last edited by DarkGate; 06-10-2009 at 08:54 PM.

  12. #332
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    Hey, I seem to fight the same people over and over, and there is at least one guy on the top 10 list I can't recall ever playing against. Is there a reason behind this? or am I just making stuff up?

  13. #333
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    Deck

    I have come up with a few simple strageties that are almost unbeatable depending on the type of draws I get. Like most of you, I rely on Nova. The best deck I have come up with however is pretty simple.

    6 Novas
    6 Immortals (kind of like a double poision)
    6 Lightings
    4 Dimensional Shields
    6 Poisons
    12 Aether Pillars

    The only way I really ever lose is if I get my Dimensional Shield destroyed and don't have a back up or when I wait too long to use my dimensional shield/lightnings.

    I alwyas have defense with either Lightnings and Dimensional shield.Immortals and Poison provide a slow damage flow. I like to stack up my Lightnings while putting out my dimensional shields to get a huge end of the game blow.

    The only deck I can think of that can consistently beat this is something with purities, steal, and dimensional shields.

    By the way, theirs a reason its 30 cards. This way you always pull a nova/dimensional shield. Those are the key to the deck. And using the dimensional shield/lightnings at the right time are crucial.

  14. #334
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    I think Dimensional Shield is the problem card in a lot of decks. Seems like it's one worth keeping an eye on for future tweaks.

  15. #335
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    Hmmm, is it possible that everytime i buy cards from the bazaar i get one less than the actual amount i've just bought... Even though i pay for all of them!

  16. #336
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    Quote Originally Posted by Caiphas View Post
    Hmmm, is it possible that everytime i buy cards from the bazaar i get one less than the actual amount i've just bought... Even though i pay for all of them!
    It may just be a display glitch, try exiting the bazaar screen and see if the card counts are right.

  17. #337
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    Dim Shield.

    I dont think dimensional shield will be tweaked. The new shields that were just added are pretty awesome too.

    As long as you have a few steals or the fire card that destroys permanents in your deck, shields shouldn't be too much of a problem for anyone.


    I think poison should be upped to 2 pillars to use. That would deter alot of non-death decks from using poison(like my deck...)

    Also, forest spirit is absolutley dominant if used correctly with paralell universe. I had a deck utiliziing them too(only with novas, no grass or water pillars) and it was still kill

    If I decided to start a deck using water/aether pillars and maxed out my paralell universes/forest spirits I could destroy(maybe ill try it afterI get some more money...)

    Something like this..

    6 water
    6 Aether
    6 Nova
    6 Forest Spirit
    6 Paralell Universes
    4 Dimensional Shields
    4 Lightnings

    Would not be a fun deck to deal with.

  18. #338
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maneri31 View Post
    I dont think dimensional shield will be tweaked. The new shields that were just added are pretty awesome too.

    As long as you have a few steals or the fire card that destroys permanents in your deck, shields shouldn't be too much of a problem for anyone.


    I think poison should be upped to 2 pillars to use. That would deter alot of non-death decks from using poison(like my deck...)

    Also, forest spirit is absolutley dominant if used correctly with paralell universe. I had a deck utiliziing them too(only with novas, no grass or water pillars) and it was still kill

    If I decided to start a deck using water/aether pillars and maxed out my paralell universes/forest spirits I could destroy(maybe ill try it afterI get some more money...)

    Something like this..

    6 water
    6 Aether
    6 Nova
    6 Forest Spirit
    6 Paralell Universes
    4 Dimensional Shields
    4 Lightnings

    Would not be a fun deck to deal with.
    I appreciate how you say dimensional shield isn't a problem, then go and build a deck using them as your big defense.

    Also, because they count down at the end of each turn, they're not nearly as valuable to steal as they are to use - you get one that's started a turn down, and then your turn ends after you steal it and it loses another round. So it protects the opponent an extra round over what it protects you even if you steal it immediately. If it ticked down its time remaining at the beginning of the round that wouldn't be an issue.

  19. #339
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    Yea but Dimensional shield is one of the few ways that non-nova users can really try to effectively counter many of the all nova strategies out there such as the poison novas. If there is one card at this point that needs to be tweaked above all others its probably nova because it doesn't really have much of a penalty for giving 2 of every quantum, especially since there's so many good cheap cards out there like chrysaora, poison, freeze, lycan, graboid, etc. The nova straegies allow you to have the best of every deck for a relatively cheap cost.

  20. #340
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maneri31 View Post
    Something like this..

    6 water
    6 Aether
    6 Nova
    6 Forest Spirit
    6 Paralell Universes
    4 Dimensional Shields
    4 Lightnings

    Would not be a fun deck to deal with.
    Interesting idea but I think anyone with a few reverse times and freezes would easily defeat this deck. I still think the nova/rainbow deck is dominant. I have tried other decks but nothing comes close.

    That said I would be in favour of nerfing it because I think there are many other interesting strategies possible. Significants increasing the life cost or just making it cost 1 entropy to use. I think the later would work better because it would mean all nova decks would have to use mark of Entropy to be effective and it would stop the crazy fast starts where someone throws down 2 or 3 novas and 3 or 4 creatures the first round.

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