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Thread: Ouch! Flash is on its way out.

  1. #41
    N' then I might just
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    david petley's Avatar
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    I was unaware of this until recently, but I guess one really crucial issue for this discussion is that Adobe will no longer be developing the flash player for mobile devices following the release of flash player 11.1 for Android and Blackberry. See http://blogs.adobe.com/conversations...ash-focus.html

    Our future work with Flash on mobile devices will be focused on enabling Flash developers to package native apps with Adobe AIR for all the major app stores. We will no longer continue to develop Flash Player in the browser to work with new mobile device configurations (chipset, browser, OS version, etc.) following the upcoming release of Flash Player 11.1 for Android and BlackBerry PlayBook.
    They go on to say -
    These changes will allow us to increase investment in HTML5 and innovate with Flash where it can have most impact for the industry, including advanced gaming and premium video. Flash Player 11 for PC browsers just introduced dozens of new features, including hardware accelerated 3D graphics for console-quality gaming and premium HD video with content protection. Flash developers can take advantage of these features, and all that our Flash tooling has to offer, to reach more than a billion PCs through their browsers and to package native apps with AIR that run on hundreds of millions of mobile devices through all the popular app stores, including the iTunes App Store, Android Market, Amazon Appstore for Android and BlackBerry App World.
    No longer a Flashkit mod, not even by stealth

    Insanity is just a point of view. After all, the world looks pretty normal through your own underpants.

  2. #42
    Flashkit historian Frets's Avatar
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    Due to stock prices dipping and layoffs
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7A77R220111109

  3. #43
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    david petley's Avatar
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    Whatever the reasons, no more mobile flash player development is a pretty important issue when it comes to the op's thread title -
    HTML5 is NOT a replacement for FLASH!!!
    ...seems like, for all but high end tablets using x86 architecture and running Windows OS for PCs (like the Samsung Slate series 7), HTML5 will have to be a replacement for FLASH.
    No longer a Flashkit mod, not even by stealth

    Insanity is just a point of view. After all, the world looks pretty normal through your own underpants.

  4. #44
    pablo cruisin' hanratty21's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frets View Post
    Due to stock prices dipping and layoffs
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7A77R220111109
    Stock prices dipping is a result of declining revenues and growth. Stock price is an indicator of the health of the business as a whole. Layoffs are an easy way to cut expenses for an immediate reflection on the bottom line.
    "Why does it hurt when I pee?" -- F. Zappa |

  5. #45
    Flashkit historian Frets's Avatar
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    With declining revenue and growth comes usually comes consolidation. Flash not being the seller it used to be with the advent of other products would also target development of the free player that supports it.

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frets View Post
    With declining revenue and growth comes usually comes consolidation. Flash not being the seller it used to be with the advent of other products would also target development of the free player that supports it.
    I agree, but they are not targetting development of all flash players. They are targetting the development of the flash player for mobile devices with ARM architecture. So no new Android OS or Blackberry OS flash player after version 11.1, but on-going development of the Flash Player for PC/desktop (and non-ARM tablets and slates based on x86 architecture running Windows 7 and 8).
    No longer a Flashkit mod, not even by stealth

    Insanity is just a point of view. After all, the world looks pretty normal through your own underpants.

  7. #47
    Hood Rich FlashLackey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by david petley View Post
    I was unaware of this until recently, but I guess one really crucial issue for this discussion is that Adobe will no longer be developing the flash player for mobile devices following the release of flash player 11.1 for Android and Blackberry. See http://blogs.adobe.com/conversations...ash-focus.html
    However, they are continuing support past that for AIR on mobile. As mentioned, the future of interactivity on mobile devices is in apps. Not in browsing with Firefox on tiny screens, trying to click on hypertext links with a thumb measuring 10 times the text height.

    That said, I still think it's a bad move by Adobe. Adobe's decisions don't necessarily reflect sound ones from a technology/development perspective.

    Quote Originally Posted by david petley View Post
    Whatever the reasons, no more mobile flash player development is a pretty important issue when it comes to the op's thread title - ...seems like, for all but high end tablets using x86 architecture and running Windows OS for PCs (like the Samsung Slate series 7), HTML5 will have to be a replacement for FLASH.
    No. Because many other devices support AIR.

    Besides, from a developers perspective, the OPs statement could stand, even if changes in the industry do not reflect it. I don't contend that Flash has taken a significant hit. I contend that it shouldn't have.

    In my view, it means that the advancement of interactive technology is being dictated by forces that lack understanding of the underlying technologies. It has become a marketing tug-of-war at the expense of quality, cost and efficiency.
    "We don't estimate speeches." - CBO Director Doug Elmendorf

  8. #48
    Flashkit historian Frets's Avatar
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    My point is partially,,,, Why would they need to develop flash further for mobile platforms. Flash is underused and under realized as it is. The average flash designer really only needs Flash MX and the average user skillset is Flash5. Emphasis Average.

    Now you get a guy like JQ who knows more then a bit about AS3 and your still better then 20 years ahead of what html5 can do at it's best. To quote him
    so far animating with CSS3 is like painting with nails.
    FL carries the rest for me.

  9. #49
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    How quickly Flash ends up dead depends a lot I think on the attitude of the world's marketing people - the ones who commission a lot of Flash work. Soon
    they will be faced with the following choices:-

    1) Continue to use Flash but accept that a smaller percentage of
    people will be able to see it.

    2) Switch to HTML5, but accept that not everyone can see that either,
    and that what cool Flash stuff your marketing budget dreamed of is either going to cost more in html5 (due to differiing broswer compatibilities), be unimplementable in html5, or both.

    3) Give up and use neither, go back to only using text, jpegs and video.

    Which of these becomes the standard for a few years will depend on the
    marketing person in question, but I guess over time there will be a general
    flow towards one of them, until such time that HTMl5/Javacript catches
    up with where Flash is now, or even was 5 years ago

    As developers, we can only but try and push people in the direction of #1
    for now.

    >Adobe's strategy has been to market flash/flex as a platform to develop applications.

    Which is fine for one thing? But would yo, or anyone else, download and install (and use phone storage) for an App that was purely designed to persuade you to buy something?
    Last edited by galaxy_michael; 12-12-2011 at 10:28 AM. Reason: adding further thoughts
    --------------------------
    www.galaxyarcade.co.uk

  10. #50
    Flashkit historian Frets's Avatar
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    Do you have any statistical data to back up your statements?

    Because the stats I'm reading tell a different story
    http://now.periscopic.com/2011/05/ou...-your-project/

    Flash doesn't have to go anywhere for the next 20 years and it will still be more advanced then html5.

    When one combines flash with other technologies it becomes something entirely different.

    Everybody talks iOS but few only 20% of the smart phone market is made up of iOS. Android, RIM, and MS make up 80% of that market. They all support SWF/Flash and that isn't going away.


    99% of the browser market currently support Flash. 40% support html5
    1% of the browser market is iOS.

    So if you are making a decision on what to design with shouldn't you make that on availablity of the current market and not on what you imagine it may or may not be in 20 years

  11. #51
    Hood Rich FlashLackey's Avatar
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    It will be interesting to see what happens next.

    I no longer have confidence that Adobe will properly navigate for Flash. However, if it does die out, the fact will remain that demand for what it does has been cultivated in clients and users over years. That will not die out. And the idea that HTML5 sufficiently meets that demand is a pipe dream.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see that demand met by some new solution.
    "We don't estimate speeches." - CBO Director Doug Elmendorf

  12. #52
    Flashkit historian Frets's Avatar
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    I've merged these threads as we seem to be running arount the same circles.

  13. #53
    Total Universe Mod jAQUAN's Avatar
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    It also has to do with how consultants handle the contracts. At this point I feel fully justified in charging a lot more for html5 apps than flash. I'm working with more or less new technology for an uneven landscape and that just has to cost more money. If all the flash devs just bend over and charge the same price they would have for a flash version then their is not much hope. If they instead offer flash at a premium and throw in a low-tech html5 counterpart we have a leg to stand on.

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlashLackey View Post

    I wouldn't be surprised to see that demand met by some new solution.
    Possibly... We have seen an increase in the number of big clients turning to our web plugin instead of Flash (even though Creator can do both).

    But then we released Flashpiper for android and they suddenly got interested in Flash again. They could see the value in apps but not in the cost of developing apps and here was a shortcut solution. When there is a specific requirement then customers will choose what solves that particular problem most cost-effectively not necessarily the most cutting edge. Lots of people know Flash and there are lots of Flash developers it will make this cost-effective for a long time, especially in elearning.

    Most of our major corporate and government customers take an enormous amount of time to change systems. Once they move they'll stick with it for a long time. Flash is familiar tried and tested and that's important. Its use will evolve but I don't think it will fade away for a while yet.

    IMO Adobe's announcement is more to do with where they see upgrade revenues coming from (or not). As has been said by others Flash is already under-used so upgrades are already less of a priority.

  15. #55
    Total Universe Mod jAQUAN's Avatar
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    specifically, mobile-flash is underused. It's important we never state that incorrectly.
    I'm interested, how did you clients who chose flash-based solutions for android apps feel about the lack of iOS support?

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by jAQUAN View Post
    specifically, mobile-flash is underused. It's important we never state that incorrectly.
    Agreed but my point was that while many people use general Flash to its full potential there are also many who don't and they will not upgrade as regularly.

    Quote Originally Posted by jAQUAN View Post
    I'm interested, how did you clients who chose flash-based solutions for android apps feel about the lack of iOS support?
    They don't care. They will buy the complete solution for a particular problem. Consider the cost of say developing a simple health and safety induction program for casual labour who turn up at a construction site. On the one hand you have the cost of developing a Flash presentation and test and buying Android tablets. On the other you have the cost of developing in a more complex environment with fewer developers to compete for the project and then you have to buy more expensive iPads to play it on. No contest.

    Then what happens when you want to connect to your in-house HR system which is on your Windows PC. Of course its possible from an iPad but it's more costly.

    Just because we have to be at the cutting edge doesn't mean our clients are too.

    Paul

  17. #57
    Total Universe Mod jAQUAN's Avatar
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    It's rare that we get such a controlled environment. I just worked on an installation made up of 24 iPads. Not much wiggle room there.

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