Flash is dying?

[Ecuder]

This was a thread from anther flash forums site that i am a member of (how ever this forum pales in to comparison to FKIT! that is why i rarely get on it) But check out what was posted.

I wonder ... Google/Apple have made some furious attacks on Flash (html5, mobile market) and at the same time I feel like Adobe is losing it with so many problems (some hard to believe like the sound api for example) with FP9/10 that are left unanswered. No FP11 coming soon, no major bug fixing plan, and most of all the losing attitude to always say "everything's fine" as in "I know better". Well guess what Adobe, it's coming and it's gonna hurt and once you are gonna get it it will be too late.

And with the thread i read on here which spoke of the iphone not supporting flash anymore

Adobe is halting development of a Flash-to-iPhone software tool introduced with its Creative Suite 5 last week, dashing the hopes of many that Flash will be supported in future iPhone updates. The move further escalates tensions between Apple and Adobe. Adobe now says it plans to concentrate on developing for Google's Android mobile operating system, according to a blog post by Mike Chambers, Flash platform product manager for Adobe.

Adobe's move comes hot on the heels of Apple's new iPhone OS developer agreement, introduced last week, which prohibits developers to use third-party app compilers, such as Adobe's own tool included in Flash CS5. Despite halting development for the Flash-to-iPhone compiler. Chambers said Adobe would still be shipping the tool with Flash CS5.

Is the amazing giant Flash really coming to an end? Why does google/apple all of a sudden hate flash so much?

[Ecuder]

There is actually a whole web page dedicated to this... There really is too much cyber space out there isnt there?

http://isflashdeadyet.com/

He actually made some awesome points in there i read the whole thing

[FlashLackey]

Flash doesn't hinge on whether or not Apple likes it. It's not going anywhere. I'm pretty sure that Apple's stance on it will hurt Apple more than Adobe in the long run.

That is an interesting link. However, I think that he misses a large reason why many developers prefer to work in flash. It's plug-in based. So, you spend all of your time and effort making the actual app. In standards based programming, you get to spend a large chunk of your time testing and tweaking work you already completed for one browser so that it will work in several others. This is mind-numbing grunt-work for anyone who has worked in flash (or just about every other sanely architected technology platform) where you build the application once.

Give it about a year for the knuckleheads who don't know this technology to try and build designs suitable for flash in HTML5. Once they burn a hole in their budgets for a product that looks and performs inferior to what they are currently used to with flash, things will settle down and return to normal.

[jAQUAN]

IF anything actually happens to flash it will because there is an undeniably better replacement. Canvas is no where even close to that so until someone else can bring 10+ years of R&D to the table, there's nothing to worry about.

[Frets]

How many threads have we had on this subject already?

If people want the pretty box with limitations they will buy it. If they are not happy with the limitations it's something apple has to address.

[jasonsplace]

I really don't think that Google hate's Flash. They support future web standards like HTML5 but watching the Google I/O keynotes last week they made it abundantly clear that they feel that Flash is a part of the internet which is why they've worked with Adobe to bring the Flash player to Android and soon, to Google TV. The utilize Flash in quite a few of their products as well to accomplish things. Apple does hate Flash but by themselves they aren't going to be able to kill it.

[gparis]

I've done web for around 10 years now. I went from doing 90% Flash based to 90% php/mysql in the last 3 years. Using Flash mostly for videos, if the videos were not hosted on youtube, and even so always with a detection and their counterpart in QT. When the client wants animations we use mostly javascript. Not dead but not as strong as it used to be.

gparis

[FlashLackey]

Interesting. I've also been working with web for a similar amount of time. We haven't seen a drop off in either platform. If anything, flash has been outpacing php/mysql in terms of increased revenue from projects per year.

Maybe we picked up the work others like you have left behind.

[gparis]

It's possible ;-)

I'm based in QC Canada. Most clients now want CMS, which is easier to set up therefore less expensive with a php frontend, social networking and iphone compatible websites (that's in this current year's trend). The only Flash clients I've got are more in the music/movies business, and even the last movie production i did (www.gofilms.ca) wanted iphone compatible. All others corporate/marketing and retail don't want Flash anymore.

Could also be cyclical, like everything else. We get a lot of music contests, same as what was popular the 1960's. what comes around..

gparis

[jasonsplace]

The only Flash clients I've got are more in the music/movies business, and even the last movie production i did (www.gofilms.ca) wanted iphone compatible

I don't know if that site is the best example that Flash is dead. You have a Flash intro and all of the videos on the site are done with Flash. It may be used differently than how you used to use it but it is in use.

[gparis]

You have a Flash intro and all of the videos on the site are done with Flash

I also have alternate content for both. As i said earlier all flash trailers have their QT counterpart. 10% flash isn't enough for my satisfaction. Client doesn't care as long as they can view/share their web on iPhone and iPad.

gparis

[Nogol]

I hope they delete Flash from the web. F-ing flash contents makes my PowerMac G4 slow.

Nah, just kidding.
Flash wont die.

Anyway, found this on the web, some guys are developing some open source stuff that can convert flash to HTML5/JavaScript, so, it can be played on the iDevice.

There's a demo page, you can open the demo page from your iDevice and see for yourself.

http://smokescreen.us/

[mneil]

I saw that smokescreen the other day. It's limited by the browsers speed though, and not the computers power like flash is. And, it seems like it's mostly an advertisement replacement tool for ads on the iphone with timeline based animations and it couldn't handle data like flash can.

Note:
It's also not released yet, so who knows how great it really is?

[Frets]

One thing I am curious about. Any reports come back regarding Mac OS X 10.6.3 and Flash Player “Gala"

[hanratty21]

One thing I am curious about. Any reports come back regarding Mac OS X 10.6.3 and Flash Player “Gala"

The anti-flash sentiment is only for their mobile-type devices (iPhone/maxiPad, etc.) They don't plan on locking down the OS to flash for desktops and laptops.

[Frets]

I have to disagree with you on that. Many apple consumers are not happy with the performance of flash on mac's and they are blaming adobe.

As well, iphone is number 3 in smart phones android is number 2 Adobe has released flash 10 for android. If the smart phone market is driven by features / app /software availablility then it would only make sense that apple join the bandwagon as opposed to fighting it. or perhaps in a few years they will come out with a dual boot android model.

[admedia]

iphone is number 3 in smart phones android is number 2

What is your source on this data?

[jAQUAN]

iPhones have already been hacked to dual boot into android but of course without a proper UI. Flash performance on macs is due to Apple not allowing Adobe to access low level hardware although they recently opened a particular feature set which adobe promptly took advantage of. Once android has the software selection that apple does, you'll see apple be more flexible, until then they just don't have to.

Either way, HTML5 has a long fk'ing way to go before it will ever perform as fast or due as much or use less battery than flash so the debate is moot. Cry not for flash.

[FlashLackey]

The Android operating system (OS) continued to shake up the U.S. mobile phone market in the first quarter (Q1) of 2010, moving past Apple to take the number-two position among smartphone operating systems, according to The NPD Group, a leading market research company. NPD’s wireless market research reveals that based on unit sales to consumers last quarter the Android operating system moved into second position at 28 percent behind RIM’s OS (36 percent) and ahead of Apple’s OS (21 percent).

http://www.npd.com/press/releases/press_100510.html

[jasonsplace]

Android isn't #2 in market share. They are #2 in sales for Q1 of this year behind RIM but ahead of Apple. It's a big step for the Android platform but they still have a little ways to go before they overtake the iPhone in market share. I have started seeing quite a few Android devices though and personally, I know quite a few more people with an Android device than with an iPhone.