[RESOLVED] How long can Apple resist Flash

[david petley]

@joel re:

It's the implementation mine field that puts a huge asterisk on the phrase "replacement for flash". It's not wrong to like html5, it's entirely wrong to suggest flash is no longer needed.

I totally agree. I do not think it will ever come close to being a 'replacement'.

I think HTML5 is important for a few reasons, but I do not think it makes SWF less important for developers. Anyone who has looked at the code behind very basic stlye and javascript driven animation, and seen how huge and clunky it is, will realise that there are possibly many things that can be done simply with Flash that will never be possible without it. When you see tablet and smartphone companies advertising thier product in part by saying "supports Flash" you know that consumer demand will eventually drag Apple back into the fold.
I think only Apple iOS (used in just a couple of the plethora of devices available to the consumer) does not support SWF. I also think Apple will change their stance eventually and join with Adobe in the development of a flash player for their iOS.

Some reasons why I like what I see of HTML5...

1) HTML5 has the support of major browser engines, both current and in planning. Webkit (Safari, Google Chrome, Android), Presto (Opera, Opera mobile), Gecko (all Mozilla software including Firefox) ...all have fairly robust support already, and even IE9 seems to have much more support for emerging standards than ever before with older browser versions. Dominant browser companies such as Apple, Google and Microsoft have all committed support for the development and presentation of HTML5.

I expect/suspect that by 2014, when HTML5 is due to become the official web standard recommendation, all major browsers, including mobile devices, will be able to present a web page that looks the same on any of them.

2) It has a much richer feature set than earlier versions of HTML and they will have wide support.

3) It has simplified and standardised HTML, and it is designed to be backwards compatible. Pages developed using HTML4 or XHTML or some other flavour of older code should still render as you expect without major re-writes.

No reason to be worried about the death of SWF. The announcement would not only be premature, but very likely wrong.