How is the future of Flash?

[tomsamson]

Flash and other plugin content is still huge for web games to be played on desktop machines or notebooks in the next 1-3 years.
For websites it is already not a good idea to use it for any new content unless it is about something that absolutely can´t be done with html/js/css and doesn´t have to be used on mobile device browsers.

Apple not having any plugin support on iOS devices.
Adobe ceasing further development of the mobile browser flash player.
Windows RT not having proper flash support and even Windows 8 not running plugin content by default via the IE browser version which is the default one launched from the Metro start menu.

These are clear signs and big pushes against flash´s future.
With movements like that going on, the longtime future as browser plugin content is already signed off to be cut off.

The thing is, especially for more in depth interactive content like more involved complex 2D and 3D games there´s no good full replacement for the plugins yet.

HTML (no matter which version) adoption and standardization on desktop and notebook browsers is still shaky and for various important aspects like the sound side, 3d content handling etc there´s nothing good cross browser even just on the horizon yet when done in non plugin using way.

So in the long term until the non plugin based web technologies become mature enough that will lead to more things for mobile devices being done in app store app deploy way, more things on the for desktop devices/notebooks web be done in html/js/css way where possible and also as download app where not possible.

Right now flash and other browser plugin using technologies are still huge and on the desktop/notebook web they will have their space for another few years.
Again, various things some of the plugin technologies allow just can´t be done cross browser without plugins running inside the browser yet.

But more and more over time there will only be a place for technologies which don´t require a plugin to run on a website since there´s such a push from Apple, Adobe and Microsoft to kill off plugins.

Flash could have a future for deploying games as "native" app to mobile devices via their packager manners etc if they could considerably improve the downsides and it could stay relevant for web deploy for the long term, too if Adobe would get it to deploy the content running in the browser without needing a plugin.
But yeah, the deploy to the browser as plugin content days are numbered and i´d say its less than 3 years until it becomes a total niche usage for that side, even for creating games.

I think the approach ones like unity are taking makes sense where they deploy to thier own plugin and the flash player one, too for today´s web, also push things like running plugin free in the browser with things like google native client support and then also offer deploy as native app to the app stores etc on top, good to keep alternative options open =)