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I don't have time to answer this.Quote:
Originally Posted by japangreg
this election was a bit different than previous elections in terms of emotional investment of the left and right which could have skewed things quite a bit, not to mention the impact of the internets.
How was it different?Quote:
Originally Posted by TallGuyLittleCar
The US has never had an unpopular president before? We've never been in an unpopular war? We've had the 'net for a long time now, politically speaking. And on what are you basing this claim? "Gut"?
the internets was used by the stoned slackers to manipulate many online poles. Not that much of a stretch to say they put out the word to manipulate real world poles as well. Campaign finance also changed things a bit. You said we have had the net awhile politically speaking, I call BS, this was the first big election in which those running, well the dems more than the repugs, saw the net as a toolQuote:
Originally Posted by japangreg
And conservatives are grumpier than ever.
but you are right about things, we have had unpopular wars, but we have also had flawed exit polls as well.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...eytruman12.jpg
Funny thing is that had it happened anywhere else in the world, our government would have proclaimed "Election Fraud" and called for an immediate investigation, considering this is the tool they use to determine that, but this one time our government and the corporate media were happy to dismiss it out of hand without even wanting to examine it... which is extemely strange because our government and the corporate media is entirely composed of... oh, um... nevermind.
Ukraine, anyone? And the margin of deviation was less than in our election.Quote:
Originally Posted by Loyal Rogue
BTW, just so you know, the machines set for use in the mid-terms are already flipping votes to the repubs. Just so you can get those 'dems just wanted to talk more' lines ready and ignore the problem that hasn't been fixed in 2 years.
You know, I'd feel better about this if I could find one, just one instance where problems with machines didn't help Republican candidates - anyone know of one?
Really???Quote:
Originally Posted by TallGuyLittleCar
Perhaps you should read up on the facts before you try to "muddy the waters" with something that's blatantly false.
The exit polls weren't flawed at all on that election.
Just like every other US election that used exit polling, the final tallies matched the exit polls.
That headline was a result of a newspaper not waiting for the results and instead going on their "gut" and sending out the papers before they had either the exit poll data or the results.
exit polls were not the only factor in the ukrainian election, that being said the final exit polls deviation from results was higher than the isolated cases of the u.s. exit poll deviation. Venezula's 2004 was also much higher than the u.s.Quote:
Originally Posted by japangreg
That being said why are we even talking about the ukraine? You know what the Ukraine is? It's a sitting duck, a road apple, Newman. The Ukraine is weak. It's feeble. I think it is time we put the hurt on the Ukraine.
Not a stretch, but hardly proof. Or even plausible. Scewing online polls is easy - and done by both sides - skewing exit polls is harder. I doubt 'stoned slackers' would have the drive, let alone the numbers.Quote:
Originally Posted by TallGuyLittleCar
And this resulted in more people saying they voted for Kerry?Quote:
You said we have had the net awhile politically speaking, I call BS, this was the first big election in which those running, well the dems more than the repugs, saw the net as a tool
...am I missing something here?
If you think that now, wait about a week. ;)Quote:
And conservatives are grumpier than ever.
That prediction wasn't just made on exit polls, you know...Quote:
but you are right about things, we have had unpopular wars, but we have also had flawed exit polls as well.
no, why don't you do some reading about the exit polls then and the exit polls now. Why don't you read up on the facts of initial vs corrected exit polls. Why don't you read up on how newspapers come to conclusions and press times. bucko!Quote:
Originally Posted by Loyal Rogue
yes i believe the internets was used to sway the exit polls, I also believe this is exactly why al gore invented the internets.Quote:
Originally Posted by japangreg
8 states had election results that disagreed with the exit polls by as much as 9.5%!Quote:
Originally Posted by TallGuyLittleCar
It's also interesting to note that they were all in "battleground" states... NONE of the exit polls in the "safe", solidly blue or red states were wrong... and NONE of them were wrong in the democratic party's favor... hmmm.
The statistical chances of all 8 states being off by as much as they supposedly were, and all in the same direction is about 500,000 to 1.
It is ridiculious to even suggest that those were honest election results by any stretch of the imagination.
Ukraine is NOT weak!!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by TallGuyLittleCar
[/Bad Ukrainian accent]
And pray tell what the purpose would be, exactly, of having more people participate in exit polls? And how would this have been accomplished? Subversive 'stoned slackers' organized large groups of Kerry supporters in isolated sections of the country to go say they voted for Kerry... for what end?Quote:
Originally Posted by TallGuyLittleCar
btw, you should read this: The Mother of Gore's Invention
initial exit poll data or corrected exit poll data?Quote:
Originally Posted by Loyal Rogue
then why didn't the dems raise more ruckus?Quote:
It is ridiculious to even suggest that those were honest election results by any stretch of the imagination.
You can "Bucko" me all you want.Quote:
Originally Posted by TallGuyLittleCar
It doesn't change the fact that you're wrong.
The only polls that were wrong in the Dewey/Truman debacle were the PRE-election polls that were conducted by Roper, Crossley, and Gallup who were all so sure that Dewey would win that they stopped conducting their polls a full month BEFORE the elections.
That headline was not in any way, shape or form a result of the exit polls which are only conducted AFTER a person actually casts their vote.
why to get the conspiracy started!Quote:
Originally Posted by japangreg
I really have no idea, i wasn't being really serious. However I do stand by the fact that dems and liberals are more likely to stop and talk. I also believe that the stoned slackers, senior leeches, and welfare queens will vote early and lead to skewing early exit polls, while good honest christian heterosexual hard working americans can only vote after 5 or 6, and of course they vote republican. So until the end of day work wistle blows, the results will skew towards dem.Quote:
And how would this have been accomplished? Subversive 'stoned slackers' organized large groups of Kerry supporters in isolated sections of the country to go say they voted for Kerry... for what end?
btw, you should read this: The Mother of Gore's Invention[/QUOTE]
I am familiar with the entire contraversy, and do give al a node of the head for pushing through the bill that funded the creation of the mosaic browser which really did make the www what it is today.
actually we are both right and wrong. The paper was put out early because a large portion of the staff was on strike. Early data coming in showed dewey ahead. The did not print the paper ahead of time based on polls that ended a month before the election. The earliest data available on that day showed dewey ahead, I don't know if that data was exit polls or a crazy old editor throwing bones.Quote:
Originally Posted by Loyal Rogue
Truman Library
Emphasis mine.Quote:
...The pollsters, the committee concluded, had made many errors. All three national polls had not been alive to the possibility of a decisive swing to Truman in the last two weeks of the campaign. Gallup and Crossley stopped polling too early. Gallup's final prediction, published the day before the election, was actually based on two national samples gathered during mid-October. Crossley's final forecast was derived from a combination of state surveys taken around mid-August, mid-September and mid-October. Roper's final estimate used data he collected in August, which provided the basis for his September 9 column in which he predicted Dewey's victory and announced he was no longer going to publish periodic surveys. (Roper, however, did take a poll in the final week of the campaign, which he did not publish. It showed a slight upswing for Truman, but Dewey was still far in the lead.)...
nice post jg but that has nothing to do with the tribune's publishing of the paper with the dewey headline.
Those were the only polls available when the paper was printed.Quote:
Originally Posted by TallGuyLittleCar
That is incorrect, or so the tribune tells meQuote:
Originally Posted by japangreg