New Flash Version is coming (yeah, really soon now :D )

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Originally Posted by Boombanguk

I think the problem Adobe is having, and will increasingly have is which of these products do what. What I mean by that is they are starting to overlap in what they can do.

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I agree with this, and it's happening with quite a few programs beyond Flash (Freehand/Illustrator).

For example, while Photoshop is technically an photo altering based tool. It can do pretty much anything Fireworks can do, or come close to it. Fireworks is an excellent comp tool - to deliver the designs prior to building them out in whatever HTML fashion you choose, plus it's really good for *png related files. Photoshop is the obvious bred-winner when comparing the 2, but I hope people realize that there are some differences to make FW worth buying. It'd be a shame if they got rid of FW.

I guarantee that there will be a deprecated program when CS3 hands it over to the next series. Because I think Adobe is going to look at what sells individually and integrate the best out of what's not selling into the closest program that is.

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dont underestimate Flash Lite 2.1,- I could imagine that even the next flash Player still doesn´t support 3d hardware trianglization- because one major strength is the paralel stream the flash platform follows- all with the same package (pc,ppc,mobile,game hardware (PSP),...). If they try the horrible plugin dependence like director not only it would split the dvelopers (the ones who like working with it/ who can and the ones who dont) but also the platforms and as such a big lost on clients and platform.
I mean how ****ty would that be if a website informs you that your graphic card doesn´t support DX9 and thus abborts the website (reminds me of some other company)

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Then the website would just be rendered in software? but as its been said here, everyone will have some kind of hardware acceleration.

I think you raise a good point in regards to the platform being in danger of splitting. Its a very good thing, that Flash lite 2.1 can be developed by most decent Flash developers, because of our prior experience. So it will be good to keep the core of the platform the same, but with extensions for whatever target platform that people can specialise in.

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I guarantee that there will be a deprecated program when CS3 hands it over to the next series. Because I think Adobe is going to look at what sells individually and integrate the best out of what's not selling into the closest program that is

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I think you are right about that. Flash in 3 years time, should have a lot of the illustration vector tools or illustrator, a lot of the video tools of AE and a player that can handle hardware acceleration. Thats where it should go. Photoshop will always stand alone I think, and should. I think in 3-5 years time, the adobe line up will be something like this

Flash CS4/10 (incorporating the above)
Photoshop CS4
DreamWeaver

And Premiere

It will be a bold step to drop illustrator and AE but I can see those programs being swallowed up by Flash and PhotoShop. It must be costing them a fortune to keep all these app's developed, and for what reason? there needs to be some consolidation. Then all they need is a dedicated 3D app and they are good to go :)

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Originally Posted by renderhjs

dont underestimate Flash Lite 2.1,- I could imagine that even the next flash Player still doesn´t support 3d hardware trianglization- because one major strength is the paralel stream the flash platform follows- all with the same package (pc,ppc,mobile,game hardware (PSP),...).

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The flash player already doesn´t go for one package for all platforms anymore as you nailed it with talking about flashlite.
I think its a good thought to have a special player/vm for low end and mobile devices and go for more functionality/bigger system requirements for the desktop/browser rendition.

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Originally Posted by renderhjs

I mean how ****ty would that be if a website informs you that your graphic card doesn´t support DX9 and thus abborts the website (reminds me of some other company)

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I think something similar will happen anyway,no matter if with flash or not.
MS is shaping up with their expression suite and the browser side wpf platform,so once more sites make use of that, people will have to have certain 3d hardware/3d libs or will have to go for software rendering (or just not be able to experience that content at all).
Personally i appreciate that technology is advancing and sure,as always when that happens people will either not be able to use it or accept they have to update something on hardware or software side.
I think it´d be nonsense to force users to have the latest spec directx/open GL/3d card combo for a pretty static business site; though when its about games or media intensive content in general, the end users normally are more ok with upgrading to enjoy things they couldn´t enjoy before and there´s also a sense for the hardware/software requirements.