That's pretty big. If you preloaded the entire movie, expect it to take around 3 minutes on a 56k, and 1.5 minutes on a 128k ISDN. If you're curious where I get the stats, search online for a utility called DL-Calc. It's a freeware calculator that allows you to put in a file size (in bytes, kb or MB), you can select download speeds (56k, etc.) and it estimates the download time.
Keep in mind that Flash can stream as you play the movie, but you'd have to preload quite a bit before you began playing the file.

FYI