Man, sure there are political issues, there always are
I haven´t talked about that side (flash player running in the browser on the device hence maybe having negative effect on app store sales hence that could be one reason for apple blocking it) because the current flash (mobile) player runs way unstable and slow on mobile devices when used in a "native" "desktop" app on em. So using the flash player in the browser on them where the player naturally gets way less of the system ressources is even more ugly. Hence yeah, why i don´t think without a radical player improvement Adobe can play the politics card, cause as it is, if apple would allow the current flashlite player for desktop and browser use the playback performance would make most users wish it wasn´t there, not make em think "i don´t need the app store with full hardware supported apps anymore now that i got my mighty crash prone flashlite here"

Now of course if Adobe now somehow manages to surprisingly release a damn about time really well performing really well hardware accelerated for display operations mobile flash player that can run great at low memory and cpu requirements, well, if and when that happens, things would look a lot different.

Then suddenly the majority of people may ask for flash player support on their mobiles instead of varying between "hell,no, please not" and "i don´t care as long as it doesn´t crash".

Then there´s the side of Adobe politics to consider, too though:
Why doesn´t Adobe release a version of flash builder (formerly flex) and/or flash ide that allows to create Xcode projects to built native apps from flash projects (see how unity iPhone does it) ?
I think MANY flash platform developers would benefit A LOT from that.
Well, that side is politics, too, they´d probably rather have their flash platform developer base not be able to take part in the app store business than handing over the distribution control over to apple.