Most people will browse the internet in mobile devices. While flash will still work in desktop browsers, I think it'll become less and less relevant in websites in the next couple of years. So, in practical terms, not having a mobile flash player will affect its existence in desktop web browsers.
However, Adobe's strategy has been to market flash/flex as a platform to develop applications. And I think it will continue being a strong tool in that field. Besides, considering Flash is a great tool for game development, and animation (I'm guessing 90% of tv animation is done with flash), Flash won't go away.
I want to see HTML5 development using similar frameworks like SWIZ or MATE and design patterns as it is possible in Flash builder to build powerful and stable applications. Flash builder and AIR will be the focus especially because of the crossplatform advantage.
- The right of the People to create Flash movies shall not be infringed. -